Amazon, Target and Walmart are all launching their major fall sales next week, setting up a crucial read on consumer demand before the holiday season.
Since Amazon introduced a second fall Prime Day in 2022, big-box retailers have followed with their own events, turning the first week of October into a meaningful sales period in what was traditionally a quiet retail month. Amazon’s Prime Big Deal Days runs October 6-7; Walmart’s Fall Deals Sale spans October 5-11; and Target Circle will host a sale for members of its free loyalty program on October 6-7, with paid Target 360 members getting access a day early.
Holiday shopping was already shifting earlier well before Amazon added that second Prime Day. A recent PayPal survey found that roughly two in five consumers plan to start their holiday shopping by the end of October.
This year’s sales land at a complicated moment, though. Gas prices have spiked again over the past couple of weeks, with a gallon of gasoline up $1.43 on average since the Iran War began, per NBC News. U.S. consumer sentiment, meanwhile, has dropped to its lowest level since 2014, according to the University of Michigan’s monthly survey.
So while many forecasts still project another record holiday season, next week’s events will test how much shoppers are willing to spend, what they buy, where they research products, and which retailer messaging resonates.
Here’s what to watch over the next week:
The mix of what people buy
During summer Prime Day, many shoppers used the event to stock up on essentials like cleaning products and protein bars. Only about 14% used it to buy electronics, according to Numerator.
That led many Amazon sellers and analysts to conclude shoppers were holding off on big-ticket purchases for Black Friday. The question now is whether the same pattern holds during these early October sales, or whether some consumers will use them to check off major holiday gifts early.
A CivicScience survey of more than 2,200 consumers suggests more people plan to shop Prime Big Deal Days this year than last. Sixty-nine percent of respondents said they intend to shop the event, up from 65% a year earlier. Twenty-six percent plan to buy electronics and tech, 16% plan to buy home goods, and 19% plan to buy beauty or health products — a mix that could tilt these sales slightly more toward higher-priced items.
Even so, “if such a large percentage of consumers are concerned about the increased cost of living,” many shoppers are likely to treat these events as an opportunity to reload the pantry and stock up on essentials, according to Greg Carlucci, senior director analyst at Gartner.
While CivicScience didn’t ask shoppers whether they plan to shop Target’s and Walmart’s competing sales, it did ask where they expected to spend the most on holiday gifts. Forty percent said big-box stores.
Many of these promotions are built to serve both pantry reloaders and early holiday shoppers. Target, for instance, says on its deal preview page that it will offer 30% off Halloween costumes and decor and 40% off Christmas decor and lights.
Target also announced this week that it has lowered prices on 2,000 items — a move clearly aimed at positioning its stores as a destination for good deals ahead of the sale.
The growing role of AI
This will be the first holiday season in which advertising on ChatGPT is a real option, since ChatGPT began testing ads in January and rolled out a self-service ad manager in May.
Over the summer, Amazon ran ads on ChatGPT to promote Prime Day. It’s unclear how much that contributed to Prime Day sales, but some agencies told me at the time they would likely experiment with ChatGPT advertising themselves by the time fall Prime Day arrived. I’ll also be watching whether Target and Walmart run AI advertising to promote their fall sales.
All three companies have rolled out new AI shopping features of their own over the past year. Amazon has rebranded its Rufus shopping assistant as Alexa for Shopping and made those features more prominent across its shopping experience. Target has added AI-driven photo search and review summaries to its app. Walmart has had its AI shopping assistant, Sparky, for over a year, and usage keeps climbing. On its second fiscal quarter earnings call, Walmart CEO John Furner said the number of people using Sparky was up 70% from last year, and those who used it spent 40% more than those who didn’t.
This will also be the first major sale where Meta’s personal shopping agent, Muse, is in play. Amazon has blocked access to Muse, but Meta has named Walmart as a Muse partner.
These fall sales give retailers a chance to iron out kinks with AI tools and gather more data on how shoppers use them before the holidays. Reported usage varies widely: PwC’s holiday report found that 29% of shoppers plan to use AI in their holiday shopping this year, while a survey from returns startup Navar found 65% plan to do so. Many people may use AI without even realizing it.
“We have found that half of consumers are using AI tools when they’re shopping, and I think that is indicative of the interest in using them, but also what those tools can do as far as searching for the best price, hunting for deals. … And I think that is a significant change in behavior,” Carlucci said.
How brands balance various channels
Even though Amazon sets the sales cycle, consumers have grown more aware that other companies are likely to run sales during the same periods and are comparing prices accordingly.
Amit Dodeja, chief marketing officer at marketplace accelerator Spreetail, said in an email that Spreetail’s clients “saw stronger-than-average growth” on Walmart and TikTok this year during summer Prime Day. Spreetail also saw double-digit sales growth compared with last year’s Prime Day, and deal participation across its brand partners rose more than 30% year over year. “That tells us that consumers are still showing up for these deal events, even as they become more selective about what they buy and where they buy it.”
Still, higher tariffs, freight and other costs mean these events put more pressure on margins. And while brands are still showing up, they have to be more selective about how they do so, especially when operating across multiple marketplaces.
“We’re advising brands to look at promotions at the product level rather than treating these events as a blanket discount period,” Dodeja said. “Which products can support a deeper discount? Where does it make sense to hold margin? How much inventory should sit behind each promotion on which marketplace?”
Ultimately, the holiday season is a marathon, not a sprint — and these October sales events are just the beginning. “Consumers are spreading purchases across multiple events instead of waiting for one big sale, so inventory, pricing and promotional spend have to be coordinated across the season rather than around a single two-day spike,” Dodeja said.
What we’ve covered
- DoorDash adds new retailers, texting shopping assistant
- How Kroger, Giant Eagle and DoorDash are building out their agentic AI assistants
- How Unilever sees the line between beauty and wellness blurring
What I’m reading
- Why Kroger is trying to be more like Walmart – The Wall Street Journal
- Walmart bans AI slop signs in stores – Business Insider
- Why General Mills is betting an insider can lead a turnaround — The Minnesota Star Tribune
